Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
